When a champion stumbles

In the jungle when the lion grows old and slow, he is left alone to be surrounded by the very beasts who would otherwise cower in his presence. We are, or we must be, different from the beasts because dignity is a human trait. When a champion stumbles, you ought to offer a comforting arm on the shoulder - not a thump on the back. More than anything, it's an indicator of how we value our people. And yet in life, as it is very often in sports, we squander those opportunities.

And yet, there is a lot that sports teaches us in the way teams deal with champions. All good teams persevere - persevere with a player who is short - short of runs, short of wickets and short of confidence. Seldom do champions get left out of teams after one bad series - of course, people still criticize the Dravids and the Tendulkars and the Laxmans no end - but honestly, if someone has been suggesting their replacement, they need to get their head examined.

A good team often tries to carry a champion through the bad phase - the priority is almost always assigned to seeing him / her through the torrid phase that he / she is going through. All in the belief that while the Queen is blocked, the pawns can suggest an end-game. And hence, when champions do get dealt with badly, it speaks more volumes about the team's abilities than about the champion's.

This goes out to one such champion - he steps into a new field next week. The lion is back - albeit in unfamiliar territory. There were many doubters - there still would be a few but I would be very surprised if most of them dont get converted to steadfast believers over the next couple of years. Despite what television has come to mean for a lot of us, I have picked up a few wise things. One thing I have definitely picked up from regularly watching the National Geographic Channel is the fact that you can't capture a lion in a "spider's" web. The other thing I have picked up from regularly watching Star Sports is that when you mess around with class, you always come up second-best.

The 'Null'

Anybody who knows the basics of hypothesis testing would understand what I mean when I talk of a certain charm in null hypothesis. Its beauty lies in the fact that there is a certain air of finality in its rejection - the null needs to be rejected to prove anything at all. On the contrary, a failure to reject is just that - a failure to reject and that's it.

Saurav Chandidas Ganguly is like this insane, eccentric statistician who is kinda possessed with his sole objective in life - to reject the null hypothesis. It is absolutely no coincidence that the null was almost always stacked against him. Every single time, time after time.

[This was actually an incomplete post from November last year - I just had to complete this because it was about the Prince of Kolkata :-)]

Ganguly 1 Demons 0

It's been a while since I have blogged - a little more than a year now I guess. Very obviously, this post has been prompted by Saurav Chandidas Ganguly's impending retirement at the end of this India-Australia series. Goes without saying that his retirement would leave a huge void - I have no shame in admitting that he has been my personal favorite in this team.

There are two Gangulys that I know of - precisely the reason why is a bundle of contradictions. The first Ganguly battles. Battles the selectors, battles the opposition but more importantly, battles his own internal demons - demons that have, in the past, almost taken him to the brink of no return.

"The question in life is not whether you get knocked down... you will. The question is, are you ready to get back... and fight for what you believe in" - Dan Quayle

This quote very much personifies what the first Ganguly stood for - and fought for. He took over the reins of the Indian team at a time of great uncertainty, right in the midst of the match-fixing saga. He believed in the young guns at a time when Team India wanted to leave the past behind and could have done with infusion of some fresh blood. As a rule, he fought for them. Strangely, that is also where we keep bumping into the other Ganguly. Low on confidence, high on insecurity and yet still the fighter.

Confidence was as much his friend as it was his internal demon - a bit like Calvin's Hobbes - imaginary and only visible to him. Only he knew which Ganguly was taking the field with him that day. I suspect we saw the first Ganguly at Bangalore during the first test. I expected some nerves during the test but he did okay. I have a sinking feeling that we will also get to see the second Ganguly sometime during the series - where he can't do a thing right; when he wouldn't look into the eyes of disaster daring it to go on.

For a guy who battled hard to build a young and aggressive Team India, he has been especially stubborn when it comes to his own exit. For a guy who left Robin Singh and Prasad out of the squad once they were a little over the hill, Saurav has been particularly reluctant to live by the same rules. Instead, he is back to what he does best. Battling. And every single time, the Prince of Kolkata has risen from the ashes like a phoenix - emerging stronger.

The thing I liked best about the first Ganguly was his almost compulsive urge to wear his heart on his sleeve - that is, if he was not barechested like he was that fine day at Lord's.

Chances are, in any other era, Saurav would have been an even better batsman - tragically for India, his career coincided with the genius of Sachin and the determination of Rahul - both of whom would end their careers as two of India's finest. What he lacked in the averages, though, he more than made up in BALLS. He fought - he fought like nobody's business - in fact, he is one up after the first test.

Here goes my ode: "Aye captain!!!"

Promises to keep

This is a tribute to Manu Parashar, an FPM student who is no longer among us. He passed away - almost in his prime, with his best and most fruitful years no doubt still far ahead of him. Many unfulfilled promises, many shattered dreams, many unfulfilled commitments. In honor of the enigma called LIFE, this tribute to Manu Parashar will be in the present tense.

Manu Parashar talks only one language - the language of fun and no tension. Nothing verbose about this tribute - I only fleetingly know him. The few times that I interact with him, my questioning generally revolves around acads and what stikes me as extremely fascinating is the way he simply refuses to talk about anything to do with acads. Coming from an FPM candidate, I am astounded. I think he lacks focus. And then I am introduced to a new world of FPMs, each of them with a colorful zest for life.

Once I meet all these wonderful people, the truth dawns on me. Manu Parashar knows what life 'is' all about. Manu Parashar knows life 'is' not just about cramming for a quiz or a thesis defence. I am deeply overwhelmed by what has happened. Even in his death, Manu Parashar teaches me the same thing that he does while living. There is far more to life and the reality, reinforced so harshly and unexpectedly, is that life is far too short for all the things you wanna do. Life, for me, is no longer just about the work, work and work alone.

I have some promises to keep, chief among them are the things that I wanna do while I am still alive and kicking:

1. I want to learn the guitar and the mouth organ - and impress at least one girl with my charm and my skills
2. I want to learn how not to look ridiculous on the dance floor
3. I want to travel on a HUGE ship - a ship as complete and huge as the Titanic - hopefully with someone who can rival Kate Winslet while I try my best to outdo DiCaprio
4. I want to ride in an open jeep while playing the mouth organ - with not a care in the world about what the rest of the public might be thinking about me - ala Rajesh Khanna in Aradhana
5. I want to take my mother to Vaishnodevi once - just like another good son did for his mother in 1998.
6. I want to sing - any song that comes close to my heart that day - every day.
7. I want to get rid of all the hatred in my life.
8. I want to go watch the Wimbledon. Center Court. Period. And tell others that I was there watching Roger Federer cream his opponent (though I hate to think of Nadal at the receiving end)

And the biggest promise of all:
I will live life to the fullest - I will enjoy every single day, every single moment as if it is my last - as if there is no tomorrow. I will make it a point to spend more time with friends. I will also make it a point to get back in touch with all those long lost friends. BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE.

Because now it is too late to keep my promise of staying in touch with Manu Parashar.

MANU PARASHAR - This goes out to you. 'If' I can actually translate some of these wishlist items to achievements and some of these actually help me live LIFE to the FULLEST, that would be my biggest tribute to you. 'If' I can keep these promises to myself, that would be the only way I can express SORRY for not keeping my promise to you.

Into the darkness rides the knight

Today, Charles plays his last international game. A one-dayer against England, not at all fitting for this legend, 'The GENIUS' of his generation. Last time around, I missed writing a farewell post 3 months back when another legend rode into the darkness of retirement. But not this time.

Brian Charles Lara, the epitome of everything that is beautiful about this gentleman's game. A left-hander par excellence with an exaggerated backlift, a flowing cover drive that is as exquisite and graceful as the salsa, footwork and timing that will do Gaurav Iyer (one of our best on the IIMB dancefloor) proud, wrists that have been specially custom-prepared by GOD to make rival captains look stupid - I can go on and on.

Very often, during the last 15 years, Charles has repeatedly shown why his art has compelled the usually reticent to purple prose. Many a times, one is forced to drop everything one is doing and go find a thesaurus to find more and more superlatives to describe the genius.

But as the knight mounts his horse and rides into the setting sun, the game will miss a lot of things: it will miss one of its greatest ever batsmen with an astonising appetite for runs, it will miss one of its most innovative thinkers with a brain that revelled in outfoxing the best opponents but above all the game will miss one of its fairest and most honest practitioners. A GIANT among the PYGMIES.

Thank you, Brian 'Charles' Lara, for all the wonderful moments you have given me. Fare ye well.

The Research side of things

At the very outset, let me clarify that this is my opinion on the Research side - from my limited time with Ambit Capital. This post was prompted, in part, by a recent article (India's Best Equity Analysts) that I read in the June 18th issue of Business Today. I was a little surprised to find that most analysts on that list were in their mid-to-late 30s. That set me thinking about how long a horizon should I be giving myself to make a name in this field.

Research (the sell-side) is all about credibility - it is not necessarily about how flawless your analysis is or how many different models you had used or how many types of charts you have analyzed and so on. Most brokerage firms are involved in two types of Research: Private Client Group Research AND Institutional Research.

The objective is the same. To ensure that mutual funds buy our ideas and recommendations for their trading positions. Now, it seems that these fund managers (from what I have heard) apparently do not have the time to go through multiple-page research reports and recommendations. Hence, they tend to rely more on the credibility of the analyst who is making the recommendations. And building some amount of credibility and a track-record is what takes this long.

Every analyst makes mistakes: of both Type I and Type II kinds. So, it all boils down to picking more winners than losers. Something very similar to selection at various B-schools, selection into various clubs and committees at these B-schools and maybe even recruitment at various Day 0 companies. In fact, this is as true in life as it is in sports - our captain Rahul Dravid and coach Greg Chappell experiment with a lot many combinations in their effort to pick more and more winners. Sports - Education - Politics - Employment - and of course Stocks - it is all about "Picking Winners".

Of course, we might argue that knowledge of more models and more charts will help an analyst understand the companies or sector better. True as it may be, to an extent, what matters in this field is the quality of an analyst's judgment and gut feel. And it takes quite a while to develop that judgment about your preferred sector or your preferred stocks. It takes a fair amount of tracking before an analyst is able to develop a good strike rate.

What this occupation also calls for is a lot of co-operation. Not necessarily restricted to people within the same company, though. You need contacts from across age groups and across brokerage companies to understand what the latest directive from one of your companies might mean. Ideally, you should be frequently having personal interactions with executives from the company you are tracking. In order to get a better idea of the general direction in which the company is headed.

You need to develop judgment about the company - and you need to rely on some clues to develop that judgment. Those clues are supposed to emerge from your interaction with the company executives. How credible do their ideas and plans seem to you? Does the management seem sincere enough to implement such a plan, given the limited resources they have at their disposal and the unlimited constraints they have staring at them? How prepared is the management for the most likely eventuality and how about their preparedness for something more long-term?

Those are the kind of questions to which you need answers before you can form an opinion or judgment on particular stocks. Based on the answers to those questions, you make your assumptions - and based on those assumptions, you form your judgment. Of course, reading helps - so does keeping your eyes and ears open. Some of the best and most effective tips emerge from the unlikeliest of sources and at the unlikeliest of places. On the local trains in Mumbai - at an analyst meet - at a bank - anywhere.

Now, what skills does an MBA, in particular, have that can be utilized in such a career? Networking skills - basically knowing the right kind of resources that can be tapped to source information and tips. It also helps to be fairly decent in valuation - because at the end of the day, you are recommending stocks with a target. That target is basically the result of valuation - with all your assumptions et al. I believe every analyst benefits from the CFA course (not the Indian one). When you have this qualification, somehow your credibility in the eyes of a fund manager goes up a notch or two. Another very useful skill is the ability to talk 'globe'. "What is your opinion about this sector?" OR "Where do you see this sector in 2-3 years?" - harmless questions they may seem but it is the kind of license you need to start talking globe non-stop.

Again there are other skills that emerge depending on how the market is behaving - when the markets are raking in the points and market caps are zooming through the roof (not happening anytime soon), you need a set of skills. And when markets are crashing and tanking points like nobody's business, you need a different set of skills including how to avoid a call on your mobile.

That's about it then - so much about the Research side of things. Any takers?

Mumbai Monsoons - Day 1 - Update

A little more than 200 mm of rains and here goes the official count (Excerpts from another blogger who really loves his city)

Western Railways – 19 trains cancelled. Trains are running between 5 to 35 minutes late. The WR PRO says “The problem was in the Goregaon-Malad stretch”.

Central Railways – Trains were running 40 minutes late after being stalled between 6.40PM and 7.30 PM as lightening struck an overhead equipment wire between Ghatkopar and Kurla.

Roads – Water-logging at let's see - Grant Road, Goregaon, Bhandup, Vidyavihar, Ulhasnagar, Thane, Ghatkopar, Andheri, S. V. Road at Khar and Santacruz, LBS Marg, Kurla, Hindmata Dadar, Subways at Malad and Santacruz. And of course, flooding in Goregaon, Jogeshwari and Kandivali. I guess that is a lot of Mumbai for one day.

Mohan Kadam (Chief Engineer, Roads) says “If we get a dry spell, we will open all these stretches to traffic within a day or two”. Within a day or two? I guess he meant within an hour or two - Either that or I assume he has gone bonkers.

BMC Commissioner Johnny Joseph says this was more or less expected from the first flush of the monsoon. "Once we clear this up, the drains will work smoothly.” He also mentioned in passing that "the city’s drainage system was equipped only for rainfall of one inch per hour". Whom is he kidding? What are we supposed to do once rain goes beyond that level? Boating? Rafting? Ne more ideas? I am sure Parate would have a great time.

But all said and done, at least Mumbai has more than its fair share of movie theatres, bars, eating joints, hotels (and not just restaurants, mind you) and the likes. In that sense, at least, it is no Rajkot. You might want to check out http://pushkarsblog.blogspot.com for further details.

Mumbai Monsoons - Day 1 - Life goes on

Just for a change, this post is not about any magazine article but about my experience with the Mumbai rains. Not too different from the rains in other cities I have been in: roads are waterlogged, public transport is overcrowded and life is thrown out of gear. The city's common people face the brunt of nature. Almost everyone is affected in some manner or the other - some keep cribbing about it either in private or in the press, a few valiant ones grin and bear it - but life goes on.

Not too different, did I say? Except of course, the fact that I walked all the way from Lower Parel to Gandhi Market in Sion. A little bit like Raj Kapoor - trousers folded till just above the knee - haath mein joote - and alternatively mumbling and humming tunes from some old Hindi movies. It took me about 90 minutes - between 8:30 PM and 10 PM - to wade through the goddamn roads and get back home. Not bad - 90 minutes - give and take a few minutes here and there. The shoes and my trousers have taken a real beating - but life goes on.

Chances are I will get better at this, though - there are still at least two months of this season to go, you see. There would be enough practice every day, I am told. Much like how India is preparing for the 2007 World Cup, I must say. Slow and steady progress every day - today I shall try to walk with my shoes on. Let me see how that works out. There will be a few hiccups along the way, lots of sneezes as well - but what the heck. On the other hand, do I really have a choice? Hey, life goes on.

On a more serious note, I have no idea about the problems experienced by folks who generally travel on the local trains. I believe that trains have been delayed or even outright cancelled due to the rains. But life goes on.

PS: Forgot to add that I called up home (at Hyderabad) to inform them about my whereabouts and guess what - they asked me to buy an umbrella - now that the monsoon is here. At that moment, of course, I could only say "Okay". But now, I am left wondering how I would manage to carry the umbrella under my arms as well as let me see - one bag, a pair of shoes (in case I am not wearing them) - u get the drift? Life goes on.

SEZ: Zone of Contention

Just to take the SEZ issue forward, there have been lots of news in the recent past about how many companies have jumped onto the SEZ bandwagon. And simultaneously, there have been calls from a wide range of sources to take a relook at the SEZ Act.

Now, the zone of contention between the Ministry of Finance and the Commerce Ministry are basically these issues: 1. Land size 2. Existing units allowed to relocate to SEZ with "old" plant & machinery 3. Basic scope of activities permitted under the SEZs

The Revenue Department of the Finance Ministry has raised these concerns with the Ministry of Commerce. Another issue seems to be the process of approving applicaitons for SEZs, which has been proceeding at a fairly break-neck speed. Something to be really suspicious about, if we are familiar with the functioning of normal government approvals. For more details on the technical nuances in this Act, you might want to check out http://sezindia.nic.in, a fairly informative site. The site is not too user-friendly though and seems to be quite dated. So, good luck with the mining.

Now, for the statistics. At last count, 15 SEZs are up and running right now. These include 8 old export processing zones. If one were to ignore them, then 7 new SEZs have become operational. 110 new SEZs have been approved.

28 multi-product SEZs, 86 sector-specific SEZs and 3 Free Trade warehousing zones have been approved thus far. Some of the biggest names in India Inc have jumped on to this bandwagon. Of course, the likes of Mahindra & Mahindra, the Tatas, Reliance (as mentioned in an earlier post on this blog), Wipro and Nokia have been marching in with hype, hope and fervour. Some of those that not many might have heard of but have been quietly creeping in, though, include the following:

1. An SEZ exclusively for animation and gaming
2. A very ambitious "Disneyworld, Hollywood and Las Vegas rolled into one" mega-entertainment SEZ proposed by Essel World, owned by Subhash Chandra (from the stables of Zee)
3. Chandra-owned Unitech Limited, which built the South City in Gurgaon (on a totally different note, though, just check out the valuations for this company [BSE: 507878; NSE: UNITECH]

Given the operational and fiscal advantages that companies would enjoy in the SEZ, I would not be one bit surprised if more and more heavyweights venture in as well.

LATEST UPDATE: An empowered group of ministers will soon be taking a decision on the minimum / maximum land size for Special Economic Zones for infotech, biotech, Gems & Jewellery and non-conventional energy sectors. The group includes some of our Union ministers Pranab Mukherjee, Kamal Nath, P Chidambaram, Dayanidhi Maran and Kapil Sibal and the Deputy Chairman of the Planning Commission, Mr. Montek Singh Ahluwalia.

Will keep you posted on the latest on this front.